2019 Petroleum Resources Economics Conference

La Conferencia Económica de los Recursos Petroleros de 2019 se realizó en el HESS Club de Houston el viernes 10 de Mayo de 2019, organizado en torno a los siguientes pilares fundamentales: Estimación de reservas y recursos, Reservas y precios del petróleo, Proyectos no convencionales y offshore y Gestión de riesgos y evaluación de incertidumbre

Por Reinaldo González

 

Bill de Miss, Miles Palke, Rod Sidle, Coerte A. Vorhies, Susan Howes, Rita Creasy-Reed, Jean-Christophe Rovillian y Luis Quintero

 

Reinaldo González

Conference Itinerary

Los asistentes disfrutaron además de desayuno, almuerzo, hora feliz y amplias oportunidades para establecer contactos entre las charlas de nuestros distinguidos ponentes de clase mundial.

 

 

La agenda del día fue la siguiente:

8:00 AM Breakfast and Check-In
9:00 AM Keynote with Dr. Nathan Meehan – Oil and Gas Carbon Intensity
10:00 AM Rod Sidle – Using the SEC’s “Reliable Technology” Concept for Buy/Sell Transactions
10:30 AM Dr. Luis Quintero – Evaluating the Impact of Venezuela’s Oil Production
11:00 AM Rita Creasy-Reed – Strategies for a New Energy Future / Forward Thinking. Future Success
11:30 AM Creties Jenkins – How to Reduce the Risk of Squandering Billions on Your Next Unconventional Project
12:00 PM Lunch
1:00 PM Dr. Tom Blasingame – Pressure Transient Analysis (PTA) and Rate Transient Analysis (RTA) Methods in Unconventional Reservoirs
1:30 PM Bill DeMis – Historical Analysis of the Real Global Price of Oil
2:00 PM Dr. Francisco Monaldi – The Shifting Politics of Oil Investment in Latin America
2:30 PM Dr. Susan Nash – Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Predicting Upstream Oil and Gas Risk
3:00 PM Afternoon Break
3:15 PM JC Rovillain – Managing Reserves & Resources. And Means.
3:45 PM Miles Palke – Building a Dynamic Simulation Model for the Purpose of 1P, 2P, & 3P Reserves Estimation
4:15 PM Coerte Voorhies – Risk Reduction for Reservoir Delineation Utilizing Amplitude Attribute Analysis in Visualization and Processing Software (or How to Find the Exact Reservoir to Drill in an Anastomosing Channel Sand System)
4:45 PM Susan Howes – Toolkit for Making Better Decisions when Faced with Ethical Dilemmas
5:15 PM Ivy Bar & Bistro (2613 Potomac Dr, Houston, TX 77057)

 

 

El pasado Viernes 10 de Mayo asistimos al evento “2019 Petroleum Resources Economics Conference” en Houston organizado por “The Society of Petroleum Resources Economists” (SPRE). La agenda bastante heterogénea tanto en los tópicos como en los expositores, pero siempre girando alrededor de los pilares fundamentales de la organización “The Society of Petroleum Resources Economists”. Bien cabe decir, enriquecedora jornada.

Después de la acostumbrada hora para registrarse, tomar un café y socializar tempranamente, la apertura estuvo a cargo del Dr. Nathan Meehan (ex presidente de la SPE y actual presidente de Gaffney, Cline & Associates), quien nos habló del concepto de ‘Carbon Intensity” en la producción mundial de petróleo y gas, y cómo este indicador se ha estado utilizando para cuantificar las emisiones de CO2 en exploración, perforación, producción, procesamiento y transporte. La quema y ventilación de gas es todavía una actividad persistente en el presente.

La siguiente presentación estuvo a cargo del experto en reservas Rod Sidle quien actualmente preside el Comité de Definición de Reservas de la SPEE. La charla versó sobre el concepto “Reliable Technology” anclado en los documentos oficiales del “Petroleum Resources Management System”. Un interesante paseo por el formalismo y el cómo debe ser aplicado para la calificación formal de reservas de hidrocarburos.

El Dr. Luis Quintero siguió con su disertación “Evaluating the Impact of Venezuela’s Oil Production”. El Dr. Quintero, venezolano, es el actual “Chief Advisor” en gerencia de producción de la empresa Halliburton, y nos habló sobre la recuperación de la producción de petróleo en Venezuela y su impacto en el escenario mundial (por supuesto, bajo la premisa de un nuevo gobierno en dicho país). Amena, optimista, bien interactiva y bastante controversial su exposición, pero dejando un buen sabor en el intelecto de todos los presentes.

La siguiente presentación, “Strategies for a New Energy Future / Forward Thinking. Future Success”, estuvo a cargo de la experta Rita Creasy-Reed. Su charla nos permitió entrever cómo en un negocio como el petrolero, inclusive la mejor planificación puede resultar insuficiente a la hora de enfrentar la alta sensibilidad de esta industria a factores que le son exógenos pero impactantes.

Cerró la mañana el experto en evaluación de activos Creties Jenkins (asesor del grupo Rose & Associates) con su interesante exposición “How to Reduce the Risk of Squandering Billions on Your Next Unconventional Project”. Sonados ejemplos de bancarrotas y desperdicion de colosales montos monetarios fueron cubiertos. Jenkins señaló cómo muchos de los fracasos se han debido a la forma en que se evaluaron y desarrollaron las oportunidades centrándose más en el logro de producción que en la creación misma de valor.

Después de un sustancioso almuerzo provisto por los organizadores, las sesiones de la tarde fueron comenzadas por el Dr. Tom Blasingame con su presentación “Pressure Transient Analysis & Rate Transient Analysis Methods in Unconventional Reservoirs”. Muy de actualidad y con una revisión histórica hasta el presente de las principales metodologías y modelos teóricos de declinación. Nos dejó la interesante reflexión sobre si la persistente aparición de diferentes modelos de declinación, no obedecerá más a la forma en cómo producimos los yacimientos que en la convicción de poder emularlos basados en su naturaleza.

A continuación, tuvimos la presentación titulada “Historical Analysis of the Real Global Price of Oil” por el geocientífico consultor Bill DeMis. Interesante conocer los conceptos sobre el llamado precio nominal y el precio real del petróleo, sus relaciones con la dinámica financiera global, con la inflación, con otros valores bursátiles (“commodities”), etc.; y cómo un real o distorsionado entendimiento de estos conceptos pueden influir en la percepción del público y sus decisiones, y en la propia dinámica del negocio de la industria petrolera.

El Dr. Francisco Monaldi tomó su turno con su charla “The Shifting Politics of Oil Investment in Latin America”. El Dr. Monaldi, otro venezolano, y figura sobresaliente del medio académico del mundo energético (Rice University), disertó sobre los factores geopolíticos y la dinámica de los países latinoamericanos. Historia de la región, producciones petroleras, nacionalismos, tendencias políticas, volatilidad, riesgos para la inversión; todo en una bien estructurada e ilustrativa presentación.

La Dra. Susan Nash quien es la directora para la AAPG de Innovación y Ciencia y Tecnologías Emergentes siguió con su presentación –“Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Predicting Upstream Oil and Gas Risk”. Nos presentó un sumario eficiente de estos conceptos, y de cómo las aplicaciones han venido ganando cada vez más terreno en nuestra industria bajo los eternos objetivos de minimizar riesgos, disminuir costos y aumentar producción.

El receso de la tarde antecedió el segmento final del día (café y galletas!); y retomamos el curso de este evento con la charla de Jean-Christophe Rovillain quien es el actual director y cofundador de la SPRE (organizadores del evento). JC como es conocido en el medio, nos habló sobre la correcta utilización de indicadores estadísticos en la agregación de reservas bajo las diferentes clasificaciones. Siempre instructiva esta clase de discusión. El titulo de su presentación, “Managing Reserves & Resources. And Means”.

La siguiente presentación, “Building a Dynamic Simulation Model for the Purpose of 1P, 2P, & 3P Reserves Estimation”, estuvo a cargo del Vice-Presidente de la compañía Ryder Scott, el experto Miles Palke. Este tópico siempre ha sido objeto de debate entre los expertos, y la dinámica charla que se generó, se fundamentó en la adaptación de los modelos de simulación de yacimientos para ser usados en la certificación de reservas bajo las directrices reglamentarias oficiales.

La siguiente exposición fue llevada a cabo por Coerte Voorhies quien es consultor en la empresa Gustavson Associates, LLC. En su presentación, “Risk Reduction for Reservoir Delineation Utilizing Amplitude Attribute Analysis in Visualization & Processing Software (or How to Find the Exact Reservoir to Drill in an Anastomosing Channel Sand System)”, Coerte mostró la utilización del software Insigh tEarth® para reducir los riesgos asociados con la selección de las ubicaciones de pozos. En el caso de estudio analizado, se ilustró cómo el procesamiento de volúmenes, la representación precisa de atributos y la interpretación de volúmenes 3D confirmaron claramente las anomalías estructurales y estratigráficas en los datos de amplitud sísmica SGY.

El cierre del día correspondió a Susan Howes con su singular charla “Toolkit for Making Better Decisions when Faced with Ethical Dilemmas”. Susan es la Vice-Presidente de Ingeniería de la empresa consultora “Subsurface Consultants & Associates, LLC”. La charla está especialmente diseñada para miembros de la SPE, y busca elevar la conciencia ética y el conocimiento de sus miembros en esta materia, y bajo los cánones establecidos en el Código de Conducta de la organización. Su exposición: educativa, amena, y bien enmarcada en pragmatismo ingenieril para ayudar a lidiar con una vastedad de dilemas éticos que puedan presentarse a lo largo de una carrera en la industria petrolera.

Finalmente, coronó la larga jornada una bien merecida hora de interacción social departiendo con “bebidas ligeras”. Buen balance en todos los aspectos para los organizadores!

 

Distinguished Speaker Lineup

 

Distinguished Speakers Biographies

Oil and Gas Carbon Intensity

Dr. Nathan Meehan

Dr. Nathan Meehan is an American-licensed professional engineer with more than forty years of global experience in reservoir engineering, reserves estimation, arbitration, field studies, hydraulic fracturing, and horizontal well development. He is the 2016 President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers International where and has served on the Boards of several international oil and gas operating companies, service companies and software firms. He is the recipient of multiple awards- including the World Oil Lifetime Achievement Award, the SPE DeGolyer Distinguished Service Medal, and the SPE Uren Award- and has published over 70 technical articles and three books.


 

Dr. Tom Blasingame

Pressure Transient Analysis (PTA) and Rate Transient Analysis (RTA) Methods in Unconventional Reservoirs

Dr. Tom Blasingame is the holder of the Robert Whiting Professorship in the Texas A&M University Department of Petroleum Engineering and has his Bachelors, Masters, and Ph.D. degrees in petroleum engineering from the same institute. In teaching and research activities, Blasingame focuses on petrophysics, reservoir engineering, analysis and interpretation of well performance, unconventional resources, and technical mathematics. Blasingame’s research efforts deal with topics in applied reservoir engineering, reservoir modeling, and production engineering. Blasingame has made numerous contributions to the petroleum literature in well testing, production data analysis, reservoir management, and low permeability reservoir evaluation. Blasingame was recently named as the 2021 SPE International President.


 

Rod Sidle

Using the SEC’s “Reliable Technology” Concept for Buy/Sell Transactions

Rod Sidle is an independent consultant serving software provider Aucerna, training provider PetroSkills, and other oil and gas industry clients. His industry experience, including 35 years with Shell, has primarily been in reservoir engineering and economics with a focus on reserves estimation. Rod is a member of SPEE, where he is currently the Chair of the Reserves Definition Committee, and a former member of the Board of Directors. He is also a member of SPE who has previously served as SPE Distinguished Lecturer and member of the SPE Oil and Gas Reserves Committee. Since retiring from Shell, Rod has worked as a project evaluation lecturer at Texas A&M, Director of Reserves at Oxy, and Reserves Manager for Sheridan Production Company.


 

Managing Reserves & Resources. And Means.

Jean-Christophe “JC” Rovillain is the founder of Enhanced Value Recovery (EVR), a private consultancy practice. Rovillain has over twenty years of financial markets experiences ranging from futures and options, equities and fixed income, investment & portfolio management, and industry communication through various media, including time with Dow Jones, publisher of the world’s most trusted business news and financial information, and BARRA, the world’s undisputed leader in providing risk models, strategy tools and consulting to the global institutional investor market. Rovillain is an alumnus of Prytanée Militaire, which has previously schooled and trained Descartes, Mersenne, and other military celebrities since 1604. Rovillain is a co-founder and the current SPRE President, a role he has filled since the organization’s inception.


 

Dr. Luis Quintero

Evaluating the Impact of Venezuela’s Oil Production

Dr. Luis Quintero is Halliburton’s Chief Advisor in Production Management. He received his B.S. in Electronic Engineering from Universidad Simon Bolivar in Venezuela and his Masters and Ph.D., both in petroleum engineering, from Louisiana State University. Dr. Quintero has served the Society of Petrophysicists and Well Log Analysts (SPWLA) as 2016-17 President and 2014-15 Vice President – Technology and is also a recipient of SPWLA’s Medal of Honor for Career Services. He is currently a member of the Texas Railroad Commission’s Oil & Gas Regulation and Cleanup (OGRC) Fund and the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ Legion of Volunteers and previously served as Technical Editor of SPE’s Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering journal. Since 1984, Dr. Quintero has worked for operators and service companies in over 40 countries and has dealt with petrophysics, reservoir engineering, business development, financial analysis, project management and production management. Dr. Quintero is SPRE’s first three-time Distinguished Speaker and is currently a Distinguished Speaker for SPWLA as well.


 

Miles Palke

Building a Dynamic Simulation Model for the Purpose of 1P, 2P, & 3P Reserves Estimation

Miles Palke is a Managing Senior Vice President at Ryder Scott with more than 23 years of reservoir engineering experiences with a heavy emphasis on reservoir simulation studies. Palke’s expertise includes sector- and full-field modeling; reservoir simulation studies; fluid characterization studies; well test analysis; reserves and economics studies; probabilistic studies and more. Prior to joining Ryder Scott, he worked for BHP Billiton as a Subsurface Engineering Manager and Senior Staff Reservoir Engineer. Palke is a registered Professional Engineer in the State of Texas and earned his Bachelors degree in Petroleum Engineering from Texas A&M University and his Masters in Petroleum Engineering from Stanford University.


 

Bill DeMis

Historical Analysis of the Real Global Price of Oil

Bill DeMis is President of Rochelle Court, a geoscience consultancy and has over thirty years of experience in the petroleum industry. DeMis has held the position of Exploration Manager for Marathon Oil Company, Exploration Vice President for Roxanna Oil Company, Geology Technical Expert for Southwestern Energy, and Chief Geologist for Goldman Sachs. DeMis is an American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Charles Taylor Fellow, former AAPG Books Editor, and former Associate Editor of the AAPG Bulletin. He is a Trustee Associate of the AAPG Foundation and a member of AAPG, the Houston Geological Society, the Society of Independent Professional Earth Scientists, and the Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists. DeMis is also a member of the University of Texas Littlefield Society and has authored over a dozen publications.


 

Rita Creasy-Reed

Strategies for a New Energy Future / Forward Thinking. Future Success

Rita Creasy-Reed is a Sustainability Project Coordinator at NRG Energy and a Sustainability Consultant with Round Rock Business Consulting. Through her work, Creasy-Reed seeks to lead companies to twenty-first century solutions to twentieth century problems in the areas of sustainable, cleaner, & lower-carbon energy, corporate social responsibility, and environmental stewardship. Creasy-Reed has previously served as the Finance Committee Chair for the Geophysical Society of Houston and as a Business Development Manager and Global Environmental, Health, Safety, & Quality (EHS&Q) Manager for Petroleum Geo-Services. Creasy-Reed received her Bachelors degree in geological/geophysical engineering from Louisiana State University and her Masters degree in executive sustainability leadership from Arizona State University.


 

Dr. Francisco Monaldi

The Shifting Politics of Oil Investment in Latin America

Dr. Francisco Monaldi is the fellow in Latin American Energy Policy at the Center for Energy Studies, the Mexico Center, and the Latin America Initiative at the Rice University Baker Institute and is also a lecturer in energy economics at Rice University. He is a nonresident fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, a member of the executive session on the politics of extractive industries at the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment, the founding director and a professor at the Center for Energy and the Environment at IESA in Venezuela. Monaldi holds a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University and an M.A. in international and development economics from Yale University.


 

Susan Howes

Toolkit for Making Better Decisions when Faced with Ethical Dilemmas

Susan Howes is the Vice President of Engineering at Subsurface Consultants & Associates, LLC (SCA). She began her career with Anadarko where she held a variety of engineering positions before joining Chevron, where Howes was tasked with providing reservoir management functional leadership that resulted in improved production and reserve trends. Howes has coauthored several papers and articles on the topics of uncertainty, risk, ethics, and talent management and has previously served as Regional Director for the SPE Gulf Coast Section. She is an SPE Honorary Member and a recipient of the SPE DeGolyer Distinguished Service Medal. Howes holds a BS degree in petroleum engineering from the University of Texas.


 

Coerte Voorhies

Risk Reduction for Reservoir Delineation Utilizing Amplitude Attribute Analysis in Visualization and Processing Software (or How to Find the Exact Reservoir to Drill in an Anastomosing Channel Sand System)

Coerte Voorhies is a geophysical and geological interpreter with 30+ years of global experience. Voorhies is an expert user of the CGG InsightEarth 3D Visualization, Processing and Interpretation Software Technology and is currently providing InsightEarth consulting services for Gustavson Associates. He has developed and managed G&G projects in the Permian, Gulf Coast, Colombia Llanos, South China Sea, and West Africa Offshore Gabon basins. Voorhies has served in various capacities as manager, technical expert, and consultant to ExxonMobil, Chevron, BHP, and others. He holds Bachelors and Masters degrees in geology from the University of Louisiana – Lafayette and is a professional geoscientist in Texas.


 

Dr. Susan Nash

Toolkit for Making Better Decisions when Faced with Ethical Dilemmas

Dr. Susan Nash is Director of Innovation and Emerging Science and Technology for the AAPG. Her responsibilities involve locating cutting edge technologies and scientific breakthroughs in the area of energy and environmental resources. Including new analytics, Big Data management, machine learning, as well as tools, chemicals, and infrastructure, Nash focuses on interdisciplinary approaches and tools. In addition, Nash launched U-Pitch, designed to help young companies commercialize their products and processes, as well as find partners and investors. Nash earned her Bachelor of Science in geology, Master of Arts, and Ph.D. at the University of Oklahoma.


 

Creties Jenkins

How to Reduce the Risk of Squandering Billions on Your Next Unconventional Project

Creties Jenkins is a registered professional geoscientist and engineer in Texas. Jenkins earned his Bachelors in Geological Engineering and his Masters in geology, both from the South Dakota School of Mines. Jenkins joined Rose & Associates, LLP in February 2013 after 26 years with Tenneco Oil, ARCO, and DeGolyer & MacNaughton. He specializes in the characterization of unconventional reservoirs, including tight sandstones and carbonates, shales, and coals. He has conducted integrated studies, peer reviews, and resources assessment work for dozens of companies around the world. Jenkins has served as an SPE distinguished lecturer and is a recipient of the AAPG Distinguished Service Award.